Dialing Up Change – and Unintended Consequences

As AI and other forces grow in scope, more catalyzed change is expected in the next 25 years than there was in the last 25. And that’s taking into account past major events of systemic change like the previous rise of the internet, and with it cloud-computing, cryptocurrency, high-power cell phones, society-changing social media and much more.

On deck are of course more internet-dependent changes, including Generative AI speeding up possibly nearly everything, including an explosion of IoT devices, healthcare delivery, agribusiness (including precision satellite-guided agriculture) and agbioscience, virtual reality, changes in workplace and workforce, and more.

How does one anticipate change? And how does one lower the risks of unintended consequences from rapid change?

Here are thoughts on anticipating change, including some benchmarks from ATI Innovation Advisers.

Dial up expectations for change

With the rate of change expected to increase from Generative AI and other forces, mindset is critical. Responses to change vary. You can get paralyzed emotionally and intellectually with change fatigue, or you can get energized, or somewhere in-between.

Go beyond the headlines

In a sound-bite society, it’s easy to react superficially. As confirmed by the annual Edelman Trust Barometer, trust has been pummeled and fractured, leaving a tumultuous swath of uncertainty and anxiety in its wake. Sometimes what appears to be bad news can actually be the initiation of positive change as forces shift – as Wall Street Journal editor Emma Tucker recently noted, the jarring end of the Russian sham trial against WSJ reporter Evan Gershkovich actually opened a potential door for resolution and his release and return.

Look for signals on the edges

The future, as it were, is already here. Major trends that will influence, even govern, the months and years ahead have already appeared in nascent form. Shifting through what appear to be minor trends can portend major change.

Engage diverse perspectives

Media fragmentation and consumption can lead to thought paralysis, where recognizing and seizing potential opportunities can be immobilized. Creating a vision of a path forward means connecting dots through analysis. Developing a capacity of “seeing around corners” comes from reading widely and listening carefully to industry voices and media that are finding new applications and collaborating for solutions.

A variety of sources beyond the polarized and fragmented mainstream media can set the stage for understanding and opportunities that are not readily obvious.

What about unintended consequences?

Change always results in a degree of unintended consequences, and the possibility of these increases with the rate of change. Unintended consequences represent outcomes that few (or nobody) saw coming, which can be positive, neutral or negative.

For example, the rise of social media was hailed as an opportunity for fresh and vibrant connectivity over a digital platform. Few if any fully appreciated in advance the unintended consequence of how social media could fuel toxic online bullying, an outcome that has resulted in severe emotional harm, even suicide.  Excessive screen time has harmed in-person relationship opportunities and created distorted views.

Of course, unintended consequences are not all negative. Aspirin was originally developed as a pain reliever, but it was found to have unanticipated anticoagulant properties that can reduce the risk of heart attacks and lessen damage from strokes. Low dose aspirin is now commonly recommended and prescribed for cardiology patients.

As Harvard Business Review points out, in an AI-powered era, “the consequences of today’s technologies are more nefarious because the rate at which they compound has increased exponentially.”

While we can benefit from being open to change in work and various industries (including accounting, engineering, legal, marketing, and more), we can benefit by keeping a new digital eye open.

Algorithmic canaries

HBR suggests that apart from driving rapid change, AI can also pinpoint times when it’s time to pump the brakes a bit. “Deep learning AI can help identify patterns that humans may not readily discern and gives us newfound predictive ability. Unleashing algorithmic canaries into our technologies is the first step we must take to anticipate and mitigate unintended consequences.”

The old style of “move fast and break things” needs to be replaced by entrepreneurs and innovators taking responsibility and owning the unintended consequences of what they build or fashion.

An increased move toward regulation is expected to promote this ownership. Instead of simply releasing new innovations “into the wild,” an increased commitment toward accountability may reduce unforeseen societal and commercial trainwrecks.

Finding a balance

Change in an AI world is inevitable, much the same way as steam power blew in the first Industrial Revolution. But uncontrolled change can supercharge a world of dystopia. Intelligent change, anticipated and embraced, can elevate quality of life.

Let’s dial up expectations, tempered by rational accountability and responsibility.

Change management on the agenda, especially for strategic internal communications?

By Michael Snyder, Managing Principal, MEK