Lugar – A “Heavy and Difficult” World in 2015
Is it possible to be pragmatic with a “heavy and difficult” outlook and be convincingly optimistic at the same time? From a world largely engulfed in recession to nuclear weapons to Ebola to democratic reform, such was the content of remarkable and insightful presentations (made without notes) that former U.S. Senator Richard Lugar delivered in December. Apart from its traditional innovation capacity, Lugar said it is time for U.S. leaders – current and future ones – to “use our intellectual ability and our moral skills to persuade” during this time of testing.
Delivered with his trademark “Lugar humility,” the recognized world statesman covered several regions around the world and served up reasonable insight that only decades of hands-on experience can bring. Following is a summary of the presentations made at the Lugar Center at the University of Indianapolis:
The former Senator opened his first address with these words: “If my message today is heavy and difficult, so be it, for we face a time of burdens.” Given the large portions of the world were engulfed in “very heavy wars,” Lugar emphasized that the United States had correspondingly “heavy responsibilities.”
A Much Different World – The “myriad of U.S. responsibilities is very different” than in World War I & II. Targets of terrorism cannot respond to other nation-states, instead must painstakingly look for tribes, small groups and even individual terrorists armed with disruptive and deadly weaponry.
Obama attracted an entirely new group of young voters looking for real hope from a President in 2008, “but what has evolved is a very difficult problem.” The declaration of an ISIS/ISIL-fueled caliphate has further fragmented, even outright disintegrated hopes for stability and peace in Iraq, Syria and even parts of Turkey. “The United States [is] struggling to develop a policy that works – [but] it will be expensive, at a time with the [federal budget] sequester is cutting [defense] budgets.” Lugar noted that “the is no unified Iraq state,” and that Kurds beating back ISIS attacks are now demanding independence, even in Turkey. All of these developments have implications at home in the United States.
Energy revolution and lower oil prices destabilizing national economies – Several nations, particularly Russia and certain OPEC nations like Venezuela, are dramatically dependent on $90 a barrel oil. If the global price slips below $90 a barrel, Russia and other countries will slip deeper into national economic recession right along with it. Oil fluctuations, a reeling Euro with near-bankrupt European treasuries and economic sanctions have sent much of the global “spiraling into recession,” while the U.S. is increasingly an island of economic security. Lugar is particularly concerned about Russian capital taking flight from Russia.
Ukrainian situation could trigger broader war – NATO’s Article Five – which the United States is committed to by treaty – could draw more nations into direct conflict with Russia if hostilities escalate. Article Five requires “If anybody [in Europe] is attacked, everybody [bound by the NATO treaty – including the United States] will come to the rescue.” Russian President Putin has a new generation of nuclear battlefield tactical weapons, which are now along borders in Europe. Lugar pointed out that the United States has recently “quietly placed additional U.S. troops in Baltic states and Poland.”
The growing danger of nuclear weapons – “The facts of life are, despite pressures by the U.S. and others, North Korea has nuclear weapons,” Lugar said. The rogue Communist nation is testing and developing missile delivery systems for its nuclear weapons that can strike Japan, Russia and some parts of the United States.
Iran’s nuclear program has provided “highly enriched uranium” that is weapons grade. “To say the least,” the Israelis are unhappy with this situation. The former Senator, who drafted far-reaching successful legislation that resulted in massive reductions in Soviet-U.S. nuclear arms, is very concerned about possible nuclear “accidents.”
U.S. Pivot to Asia – U.S. involvement with China and other Asian countries has resulted in America turning from its traditional European interests to China. One result is a larger U.S. Navy presence in the Pacific, which now patrols to safeguard critical sea lanes. The former Senator is not concerned with fears that China might be taking over the world’s economy.
GDP growth in China is slowing, and China’s primitive banking industry needs American investment and American expertise to stabilize itself for future growth, according to the elder statesman.
Despite all of this, America still has the capacity to lead, but it must marshal its considerable assets, including some nearly forgotten moral ones.
There was much more, so perhaps we’ll consider a Part II to this column if interest merits.
By Michael Snyder, Managing Principal, The MEK Group
About Michael Snyder and The MEK Group – As the Indianapolis Star stated in major profile coverage, “Michael Snyder knows brands.” Snyder today is managing principal of The MEK Group, an award-winning marketing, branding and PR firm known for creating transformational high-impact outcomes. For more information, please visit www.themekgroup.com